Saturday, August 8, 2020

Post 1 Self-deception/ Superstition

In the first lecture, I thought that the part about superstition and patternicity in the TED video was very interesting. I liked the example he gave of the dangerous predator and rustle in the grass in comparing Type 1 and Type II errors. The Type II error is much more costly so we naturally assume all patterns are real. As a huge sports fan, I can be very superstitious. I think that my superstition started many years ago during an Eagles game that is known as the Miracle at the Meadowlands. I had been watching the game downstairs while they were getting blown out, and then they came back and won as soon as I changed locations of where I was watching. Since then, I still hold superstitions about where I watch a game or even what jersey I wear. I usually feel ridiculous thinking that it makes any kind of impact, but I still do it anyway. I think this goes along with the analogy of the dangerous predator and naturally believing all patterns are real.

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