Saturday, July 27, 2019

Psychic Crime Detectives

Going into this lecture I had absolutely zero faith in psychic crime detectives. There is no science that I know of happening there. However, it would appear something is. Focusing in on Noreen's detective work; Did the police rig their evidence to support Noreens claims? First, disregard the Noreen's description of the victims characteristics. Maybe Noreen used the white pages to speak with locals. Disregard the R. It's a common initial, and she basically doubled her chances saying it could be his first or last name. However, being right on about his age. Maybe its luck? The sketch is what fascinated me. She said the guy arrested will have a mustache and drew her sketch with no facial hair. She even got the details down to the point that his left eyebrow was cocked.

What I am getting at here, is that the probability of her getting things correct is exponential with every detail she gives. So, the odds of her 'just happening' to get it right, are extremely small, and get smaller with everything she says. However, it would appear that she has been getting a good number of the details correct. Personally, I would hope I never have to rely on her, nor would make any large impact judgment calls based on her information. But, I won't discredit her. A major breakthrough in genetic therapy for Spinal muscular atrophy occurred. The FDA approved a $2.1 million dollar treatment with results boasting only 33% efficacy. If science is allowed to bat at the plate with a lower batting average than her, I can't tell her to sit on the bench. But if she's caught cheating, shes kicked out of the game.

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