Monday, December 1, 2014

extra post

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future, or that if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e. independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players.
We've all been there. If you have been to a casino or played a backyard poker games with your friends we have all fallen victim to gambler's fallacy. Now, I'm not saying that we have lost a bunch of money due to it, but everyone thinks this at least once when trying to gamble. I've had many times where I've been playing poker and thought that my hands have been horrible all night and my luck was destined to turn for the better. Sadly, it has not always turned out to be that way. Believing in this theory, I've lost money more times than I've won. If your losing money, GET OUT! Remember, the house ALWAYS wins.

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